The Sahm rule says a U.S. recession has started if the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points above its lowest level over the past 12 months. It is getting dangerously close to that level now. (Line shows the gap in percentage points between the most recent three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate and the lowest level of that three-month moving average over the preceding 12 months.)